Forecasting monthly production of banana in boxes /
Manuales, Jeancy Corciga.
Forecasting monthly production of banana in boxes / Jeancy Corciga Manuales. - 2011 - 73 leaves.
Thesis (BS Applied Mathematics) -- University of the Philippines Mindanao, 2011
This study was conducted to formulate a model to forecast the monthly production of banana in boxes from January to December 2010. The observations from January 2005 to December 2009 were used to formulate the model. Also, the two components of time series specifically seasonality was not apparent. The four models, namely: model using trend, seasonality, Box-Jenkins approach and the estimated model which was the average of the three obtained models were formulated and were used to come up with the forecast. In checking the accuracy of the forecasted values, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was used. The model using trend has a MAPE value of 39.14348% whereas for seasonality, it has 39.24471%. On the other hand, for Box-Jenkins approach, its MAPE value was 28.72075% while for the estimated model was 35.24275%. Since all the MAPE values exceeded 5%, whic was considered as the customary benchmark, then all the four models were not a good fit to the monthly production of banana.
Forecasting.
Box-Jenkins approach.
Components of time-series.
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
Monthly production.
Stochastic.
Undergraduate Thesis --AMAT200,
Forecasting monthly production of banana in boxes / Jeancy Corciga Manuales. - 2011 - 73 leaves.
Thesis (BS Applied Mathematics) -- University of the Philippines Mindanao, 2011
This study was conducted to formulate a model to forecast the monthly production of banana in boxes from January to December 2010. The observations from January 2005 to December 2009 were used to formulate the model. Also, the two components of time series specifically seasonality was not apparent. The four models, namely: model using trend, seasonality, Box-Jenkins approach and the estimated model which was the average of the three obtained models were formulated and were used to come up with the forecast. In checking the accuracy of the forecasted values, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was used. The model using trend has a MAPE value of 39.14348% whereas for seasonality, it has 39.24471%. On the other hand, for Box-Jenkins approach, its MAPE value was 28.72075% while for the estimated model was 35.24275%. Since all the MAPE values exceeded 5%, whic was considered as the customary benchmark, then all the four models were not a good fit to the monthly production of banana.
Forecasting.
Box-Jenkins approach.
Components of time-series.
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
Monthly production.
Stochastic.
Undergraduate Thesis --AMAT200,