Thesis (BS Applied Mathematics) -- University of the Philippines Mindanao, 2003

The Philippines has been exporting bangus for years now. Philippine bangus is being promoted as a global product. As it has always been a promising area of investment, modeling the monthly wholesale prices of bangus in the country is undoubtedly useful. Hence, this study was conducted. Using the ARIMA modeling procedure, tentative models were identified, checked and compared. The best model was made the final model. The final model is a pure MA model given by, In y1 - In y1-12 + In y1-13 = ∝+ (1-03B) (1- 01 12B12)a1 where: y1 is the tth actual price and t =1,?, 120; ∞ is the constant term which is equal to 0.004535; 03= 0.31706 and O1.12 = 0.80089. The data available for this study was from January 1987 to December 1997. However, only the data from January 1987 to December 1996 were modeled. This was done to check the validity of the model by comparing the actual 1997 data to the 1997 data forecasts. The usefulness of the study is limited to the data gathered. Nevertheless, results showed the applicability of the ARIMA modeling procedure in developing a model that forecasts the monthly wholesale process of bangus in the Philippines.